3.2 Mobility network

An adequate transport infrastructure supply is conditional for good regional economic performance. Major bottlenecks in transport infrastructure are often associated with poor regional economic performance. But economic prosperity can also become the cause for overburdened infrastructure. An example is the link between the European mainland and Nordic countries.

The demand for transport services, passengers and freight, continues to grow rapidly (see chapter II-1.6).

Railways

There are great differences in the physical supply of rail infrastructure in the BSR which cannot always be explained by differences in population densities. Different national rail electricity and signalling systems and different railway gauges cause major problems for international rail transport. To achieve interoperability requires massive investments into tracks and rolling stock.

In transition countries, the physical quality of many railway sections presents an obstacle to efficient and fast services. Rail transport has experienced a severe drop in transport volume during the last decade, both for passengers and for freight. Some transition countries have lost up to 80 percent of their rail passenger volumes. But also in other countries, railways are struggling to at least maintain their traffic volumes.

This has occurred in spite of rapidly growing passenger and freight transport demand. Current traffic growth goes almost entirely to roads. In freight transport, trucks offer higher reliability (arrival times, theft) and shorter transit times than railways. In passenger transport the situation is similar for short and medium distances, where most individual motor vehicle traffic is concentrated.

The quality and frequency of international passenger rail services in the BSR is generally poor. For example, the frequency of trains going from Germany to Nordic countries is low. But international train services between Estonia and Latvia have been completely terminated, making it impossible for Estonians now to make southbound international trips by rail.

Urban and inter-urban rail passenger services are increasingly replaced by buses which adapt more flexibly to lower and less concentrated demand volumes.

But buses are no adequate substitute to railway transport in terms of comfort, reliability and safety. Hence, growing bus instead of railway services supply contributes to the desire to have and to use an own car.

Use of trucks resp. private cars is further enhanced because, with few exceptions, no user charges on roads are levied to cover externalised costs. This leaves the impression of low user cost. Only recently a policy move towards higher road user charges for trucks has gained attention.

Future rail infrastructure improvements

In the framework of preparations for EU enlargement, the European Commission has launched a transport infrastructure needs assessment (TINA), with participation of representatives from all member states and from eleven candidate countries (in the BSR: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland).

In the TINA process, a multi-modal network was defined for realisation until 2015, respecting a threshold for national investment expenditure of 1.5 % of GDP. The TINA network includes a 'backbone network' (modified 'Helsinki Corridors') plus additional network components and nodes to transform the latter into a real transport network. The backbone network is expected to have priority in implementation.

The TINA network consists of about 29,000 km of roads, 21,000 km of railways, 4,000 km of inland waterways, 40 airports, 20 seaports, 58 river ports and 86 intermodal terminals.

TINA emphasises railways infrastructure, allocating 50% of total estimated investment budgets to rail (even more in Latvia and Lithuania). But funding is left to national priorities.

• In Denmark the focus of investments is on two main axes: a north-south corridor on the mainland linked to the German network and an east-west corridor from the mainland to Copenhagen and beyond. All projects are classified as upgrading to high-speed. A fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt towards Germany is under study.

• Finland concentrates on rail investments to upgrade existing conventional lines through capacity, speed and maximum axle load improvements and electrification.

• In Sweden, approx. 90% of proposed investment is foreseen to upgrade links in southern Sweden to high-speed. Eventually, the priority project Nordic Triangle will consist of upgraded high-speed rail lines.

In transition countries, the focus is similar:

• Estonia's strategy is similar to those of the other two Baltic states. However, the budget allocation for TINA rail is slightly less than for TINA road.

• Latvia has, like Lithuania, allocated TINA rail investments threefold higher than for road. There will be no change of rail categories in Latvia.

• Lithuania is proposed to invest nearly three times as much into the TINA rail network as into the road network. The plan includes construction of a new single-track rail link from Kaunas to the Polish border built in European standard gauge - compatible with the Polish rail network.

• In Poland, high-speed lines will link Warsaw to Poland's industrial centres in the south.

Freight volumes in BSR ports

Source: BPO

With the implementation of the TINA plans, the BSR will see major improvements of existing rail lines, with only few new constructions. But even then, the BSR will not become a region widely served by high-speed trains. Transition countries are not planning for a high-speed railways network at all.

Sea & inland waterway transport

Each BSR country has at least one port among the top ten freight handling ports in the region. There is also a large number of other ports with varying functions. However, with respect to high-value transhipments, there is a clear spatial concentration. A few ports in EU Member States handle most of the high-value freight volume.

Major intercontinental container transshipment ports for BSR countries are Hamburg and Rotterdam.

Current ferry services across the Baltic Sea are highest between Germany and Denmark, Germany and Sweden, Denmark and Norway, Denmark and Sweden. Another concentration of ferry services links Sweden and Finland. The ferry service between Helsinki and Tallinn is the only example where a transition country has high frequency links with another country.

With the exception of Germany and in Russia, the BSR does not have an inland waterway network of international importance. Transport volumes for inland navigation are correspondingly low.

Belarus, Poland and the Russian BSR each have one inland waterway link of international importance. The Odra in Poland links Poland's most industrialised areas (together with Berlin) to the Baltic sea. The river Pripyat links southern Belarus via Kiev to the Black Sea. Saint Petersburg is linked via a system of rivers, canals and lakes with the White Sea and via the Onega Lake with Moscow and the far-reaching Russian inland waterway system.

In Finland, the inland waterway network consists mainly of connected lakes and is used for wood transport.

There are small section of a navigable rivers in Latvia or Lithuania belong to an higher waterway class.

Road transport

While the road network is well developed in Nordic countries, there is a lack of road capacity and quality in the E-BSR.

This becomes pressing - and environmentally problematic - in view of growing private car ownership and mobility, as well as growing usage of trucks for goods transport.

Large differences exist between different parts of the BSR with respect to road traffic, with high traffic loads in Denmark and Germany and in a few areas in the Nordic countries, and moderate traffic loads in other parts of the BSR.

In transition countries, roads are not built for the growing amount of heavy trucks, and road maintenance cost is rising.

In spite of growing road congestion, so far there are no signs that this motivates users to consider a revival of railway transport.

Ferry lines in the Baltic Sea Region

Source: BPO

National borders are a major obstacle to spatial integration in the southern part of the BSR. Border control and customs clearance were removed between most countries of the European Union. But high and unpredictable border crossing times have a significant impact on travelling between EU countries and transition countries and between transition countries.

Future road improvements proposed by TINA

In the TEN countries there will be investments in 2,400 km of TEN road network.

• In Denmark, the total length of currently planned TEN road links is about 240 km. This includes the extension of the motorway network in northern and western Denmark. A fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt to Germany is under study.

• In German part of BSR, the focus of the 450 km TEN road projects is on the construction of the coastal motorway A20 running from west of Hamburg to the border with Poland and on the extension of the motorway from Hamburg to the Fehmarn Belt to connect with a possible fixed link to Denmark there.

• About 760 km road projects are part of Finland's TEN road network. A major projects is the conversion of the E18 from Turku via Helsinki to the Russian border to motorway standard (part of Nordic Triangle). In the north of Finland there will be some quality improvements without changing road categories.

• In Sweden, proposed road projects comprise 1,000 km. Investments include two long north-south corridors and corridors from Malmö and Stockholm to the Norwegian border and further to Oslo. The corridors in the south belong to one of the fourteen priority projects (Nordic Triangle).

  The focus is on the conversion of roads into motorways or the construction of new motorways in the southern parts of the country and on improvements of ordinary roads in the north.

TINA transition countries:

• TINA road investments proposed for Estonia are less than in other countries. A major project refers to the road from Tallinn south-east to the Russian border. There is no major new road construction planned.

• In Latvia, road investment concentrates on upgrading access roads to Riga to dual carriageways.

• Proposed TINA road investments in Lithuania shall improve existing roads, and partly upgrade them to a higher category. New construction will be only on few short sections.

• In Poland, the objective of significant proposed road investments is to create a dense high-level road network with dual-carriage and motorways. This network covers most international and national corridors. Motorways will serve the international east-west corridors, dual carriageways serve the north-south corridors.

  Even if the TINA network will be fully in operation in 2015, some bottlenecks will remain in view of traffic growth forecasts.

Air transport

A dense network of daily flights serves primarily the national capitals within the BSR. Flight connections are important for small regional centres in the Nordic countries. Many of the regional centres in less populated areas have their own airport with scheduled flights and have more passenger movements than the capitals of Baltic States

Belarus and the Russian BSR are not well integrated in the BSR flight network.

BSR airports 1998 passenger traffic

Source: ACI (2000)

Growth of interregional traffic

Whichever the forecast, demand for interregional passenger and freight transport on road is expected to grow at continued high rates.

This development is not environment friendly, but cannot easily be stopped if economic prosperity is to be enhanced.

Railways have spare capacities to absorb a higher share of traffic growth (though not by far all traffic growth). But they are not preferred by customers due to qualitative disadvantages.

An improvement of railways' competitiveness requires high investments. Partial rail improvements generate little benefits. In contrast, even sectional road improvements very often lead to clear regional accessibility improvements. Therefore, the pressure for road improvement is generally higher than for railways.

Railway companies incurring operational losses have no capacity to invest into improved infrastructure or rolling stock. State owners in most countries urge railways to become less dependent on subsidies. Cost cuts are prioritised instead of investments to improve the level of service. This is so, even if declared policies are in favour of railways.

The consequence is a trend to close down local, national and international railway services.

Maritime transport is strong in the BSR, and takes away some of the pressure on the land-based transport system. But it also leads to a concentration of land-based traffic flows through and to gateway ports. This creates particular pressure on the transport infrastructure within port regions and on their hinterland links.

These hinterland links, again, shall include railway and, where feasible, waterway transport services of competitive quality. In many harbours across the BSR, the capacity and quality of hinterland links of major ports needs improvement.

Cross-BSR integration

Even if network improvements suggested by TINA (see map) were fully implemented, they will not lead to a satisfactory integration between and of Baltic States.

Most obvious gaps in the proposed networks are:

• the coastal link (Via Hanseatica) from Szczecin through Gdańsk-Gdynia to Kaliningrad and its continuation to the Via Baltica.
• passenger railway links between Baltic States capitals, and from these to St. Petersburg resp. to Warsaw.

In both cases, a significant infrastructure improvement will be required.

Public transport

Urban structures in many cities are developing so that conditions for public transport are weakened.

Energy networks

The BSR lies in a strategic geographical position between the NW Russia (major supplier) and continental Europe. The region is rich in renewable and fossil energy resources. In a European perspective the largest amounts of oil, gas, timber etc. are found in the Barents Region.

Production of energy causes environmental problems. Either air pollution is high from fossil fuels (Belarus, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Poland) or the use of nuclear power raises problems of security and waste disposal (Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Russia, Sweden). BSR countries utilising a high share of hydropower discharge lower level of harmful substances (Latvia, Norway, Sweden), but substantial use of hydropower threatens the liveability of waters.

The BSR energy infrastructure is generally well developed, with power plants, refineries, transmission and distribution lines for electricity, gas and oil. Gas and oil fields supplying the BSR are situated in the North Sea (Norway, Denmark) and in NW and Central Russia. The international pipeline system into the BSR reflects this by covering SW and SE corners of the BSR.

Three pipeline branches carry oil from Russian fields (Timan Pechora, Western Siberia, Volga Ural, Caspian Sea) to refineries and ports in Latvia (Ventspils), Poland (Plock), Lithuania (Mazeikiai, Butinge as import-export maritime terminals) and Germany (Schwedt). There is also an oil pipeline from North Sea fields to Denmark. Distribution of oil from North Sea fields to the BSR network is made via ports in Rostock and Gdańsk. The three biggest oil refineries in the BSR are in Belarus (Novopolotsk), Russia (Kirishi) and Poland (Plock).

The system of gas pipelines spreads throughout the southern BSR, Baltic States and the western coast of Sweden. Gas fields in the Barents Sea do not have a full pipeline connection to the BSR. Currently, two major gas transit projects are in progress, the Europipe II from Norway to Germany and the Yamal-Europe pipeline from Belarus via Poland to Germany.

Electrical transmission network

As a backbone for transmitting electric power through long distances, a network of trunk lines has been extensively developed around the Baltic Sea. The network is a patchwork of national grids. The Baltic-Russian grids lack links to adjacent systems in Finland and Poland. Connecting the grids is under preparation. A link between Poland and Sweden (SwePol Link) is under construction. Missing links to create a Baltic Ring are being discussed between Lithuania and Poland. Between Western BSR countries a number of submarine lines connect national grids to each other.

The production of energy is based on three main sources: fossil fuel (pre-dominately coal); water; and nuclear power. In general, the utilisation of natural gas and renewable sources is increasing whereas use of solid fuel and nuclear power are decreasing. The share of oil increases slowly mainly due to a growing demand from the transport sector.

In Belarus, Denmark, Estonia and Poland, almost all indigenous produc-tion of electricity relies on fossil re-sources, whereas Denmark and Poland depend on coal for most of their electric power. Estonia utilises domestic oil shale, whose deposits are unique within the BSR. The main gas producers in the BSR are Norway and Russia. Denmark is self-sufficient with natural gas.

In Finland, Norway and Sweden, hydro-energy plays a significant role in electricity production. Norway produces more than 90% of its electricity needs with waterpower. In Sweden, this ratio is 50%. In Latvia, too, hydropower is a considerable source of indigenous electricity production. Roughly a fifth of Russia's energy sources are based on waterpower. Hydro energy is highly dependent on the amount of precipitation (especially in Sweden). Therefore, considerable shifts in the share of production occur from year to year.

Five BSR countries generate energy from nuclear power. Lithuania has the highest dependency on nuclear power with the Ignalina power plant covering around three quarters of its electricity production. Sweden ranks second with half of its electricity volume produced by nuclear power plants. The nuclear energy produced in the five German Lander stems from four nuclear power plants in Schleswig-Holstein. There are further three nuclear power plants in BSR Russia and two in Finland. Sweden and Germany plan to reduce dependency on nuclear power.

Renewable energy

The use of renewable energy sources, e.g. wind power, is still marginal in the BSR. Denmark is an exception, as roughly ten percent of the country's energy is presently generated from wind. But wind energy is rapidly gaining importance in Germany, too.

The BSR - a common energy market

The energy market has changed during recent years. Ongoing deregulation of national markets brings to the fore the trade of electricity and gas in upcoming joint markets (exchange pools). Participation in exchange markets decreases dependency on a single supplier and helps to optimise the exploitation of common energy resources.

With Sweden joining the Norwegian NordPool in 1996, the world's first international commodity exchange for electricity was created. Finland joined in 1998 and the integration of Denmark is under consideration.

The energy markets of Denmark and Germany are expected to be most affected by the European Union's power market directive.

Foreign investment is needed in Russia to better exploit its resources. For example, for making use of the Stockmanovskoye gas field, the fifth biggest in the world and with bigger reserves than Norway, new technology is a prerequisite.

Finland imports significant amounts of electric energy, as do Belarus, Norway and Sweden. Russia is a main supplier to Finland. Denmark exports the greatest amount of electricity in the area. However, Danish production is based on coal imported from Poland and Russia.

Norway and Russia are the main natural gas exporters of the region. Denmark delivers some gas to Germany and Sweden. All other VASAB countries are dependent on gas imports.

Use of combined electricity-heat generating plants

Distant heating is widely practised in most BSR countries, thus contributing to a high energy efficiency. But current sub-urbanisation trends create problems to maintain this system. Urban management is called to contribute to urban structures which allow to maintain and to enhance the share of distant heating.